The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread and unpredictable effects on practically every sector of the economy. Yet not all these impacts have been negative. Some industries have experienced a significant boost in demand as consumer preferences have changed. Community colleges are among those that have benefited and will continue to benefit as college students look for safer and more affordable options.And it could not have come at a better time for community colleges. Community college enrollment had been on a steady decline since hitting a peak in 2010 following the Great Recession. In this article we look at that decline and any clues that college enrollment trends during the Recession may offer. We will then explore the changes in community college enrollment brought on by the pandemic and conclude by looking at how community colleges can prepare for a potential influx of new students.
The great community college enrollment decline
Overall,community college enrollment grew rapidly during the first decade of the 21st century. Growth rates in community college enrollment were not equally distributed, however. Between 2001 and 2002, enrollment increased by 5%. That rate slipped to an average annual increase of 0.7% between 2002 and 2006. Between 2006 and 2010, however, community college enrollment increased by some 20.3%, or 4.8% annually.This spike in enrollment was largely brought on by the Great Recession. According to a report entitledCompleting College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates – Fall 2008 Cohort by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSC), researchers found that community college enrollment largely grew due to older students pursuing an education.According to theExecutive Director of the NSC, “During the Great Recession, our data showed that the impact on postsecondary institutions is not immediate; community colleges and for-profits saw the greatest increases in enrollment, mostly among older students who showed up later in the recission.” Students aged 25 and over were motivated to enroll at community colleges to improve their skills and/or move to new fields. Interestingly enough, the Great Recession had no significant impact on enrollment rates for students aged 18-to-24. for these students increased before plateauing between 2009 and 2011, only to decline from there. The NSC report also found that while enrollment rates peaked during the recession, completion rates declined. The decline in completions was the largest among older students. The reason being that once the labor market began to improve, more and more students left school to return to work.Since its peak in 2010, community college enrollment has declined markedly. Between 2010 and 2017, enrollment at community colleges dropped by 11.9%. Yet, low unemployment rates tell only part of the story. Another major challenge that community colleges face is a decrease in the number of students graduating high school in some regions. For example, New England is expected to see a between 2013 and 2023.A decline in enrollment has a trickle-down effect that impacts community college business models. Colleges face increasing pressure from legislators to improve completion rates and the number of students transferring to four-year colleges and universities. Yet, these schools lack the funds to offer the same level of programming and in many cases cannot. Unable to offer a broad range of programming, prospective students go elsewhere.But with the fundamental changes in daily life brought on by the pandemic, should community colleges except a Great Recession like surge in enrollment?
